Wednesday, February 25, 2015

GUNKUL MACD Trading v.s. Buy and Hold strategies.

In the daily chart below, I compared investment strategies using MACD signal and long-term buy and hold. The first buying was at 8.70 THB and the last selling was at 32.00 THB.


MACD trading would indicate a buying when MACD > Signal and a selling when MACD < Signal. The next day openning prices (ATO) were used for each buying and selling. Starting with a fund of 100,000 THB, the final balance was 213,508 THB after 8 MACD sellings in about 1 year. The overall gain was 213.51%.

If the same amount of initial fund was used to buy 11,494 shares of GUNKUL at 8.70 THB, hold for about a year and sell at 32.00 THB, the overall gain would be 367.81%.



In this case study, buying a good stock and hold it for a long term would yield a much better results than trading it with MACD signals. However finding such a good stock is not easy. In my opinion, getting in a good stock and hold it for a long time to gain a lucrative return is just like winning a big lottery prize. According to the Bhudda's teaching, human life span is so short and nothing is permanent. I myself would rather use MACD signal to trade GUNKUL eventhough it would only give a gain of 213.51% compared to that of 367.81% in buy and hold strategy.

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